We’re on the ending straight for the Cantina HasLab! Solely seven extra days to go! How do issues look? Funding appears to be 100% safe at this level. The large query was and is what number of tiers could get unlocked and the way the 4th of July holidays within the US could impression backer numbers. Click on by for all the main points!
Keep on course!
For the reason that Cantina HasLab is a lot shorter I checked out numbers 7 days earlier than deadline, as a substitute of day 25 for every of the campaigns. So the place are we now?
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The Cantina added an excellent 1,071 backers prior to now 7 days. Nevertheless, that is nonetheless nearly 56% of what the Ghost had 7 days earlier than its deadline. And with that the hole between the 2 HasLabs solely marginally decreased since week 1. The Ghost merely had extra time to realize backers.
However taking a look at simply the second to final week the Cantina outperformed the Ghost, the Ghost added 878 backers in comparison with the Cantina’s 1,071. Nevertheless, the Ghost had lengthy been funded, whereas the Cantina nonetheless wants to succeed in this vital milestone.
So what are the doable situations?
Within the following 6 days the Ghost added 2,835 backers. Now the query is what the Cantina’s numbers might be earlier than the increase on the final day. Let’s say the Cantina may even outperform the Ghost within the subsequent 6 days and may add one thing like 3,400 backers. This might fund the Cantina earlier than the deadline and it will enter its last day with approx. 10,200 backers. Relying on how keen collectors are this might imply tier #3 could also be in attain in spite of everything.
Nevertheless, if the 4th of July holidays negatively impression numbers the Cantina could very nicely enter its final day with considerably fewer backers. The Ghost had a number of superb days in its final week earlier than the ultimate day rush. On its penultimate day it added greater than 1,200 backers alone. It stays to be seen if the Cantina can truly match that. I’m considerably uncertain about that.
Additionally, the Cantina presently has 56% of the Ghost’s numbers, if this proportion is not going to considerably change then the Cantina would find yourself with ca. 13k backers. In need of tier #2. The truth is, the Cantina should attain 78.1% of the Ghost’s numbers to unlock tier #3. Provided that we’re presently at 56% of the Ghost’s numbers this appears very formidable. However since this marketing campaign is a lot shorter completely different guidelines could apply right here and perhaps the final week is pretty much as good and even higher than the Ghost’s. However even with the Ghost’s last week numbers, 9,662, the Cantina would solely attain tier #2 and fall wanting tier #3.
My finest guess is that tier #3 is out of attain. Tier #1 is sort of a certainty and tier #2 wants one other 7,193 backers or 75% of the Ghost’s last week numbers. Which could possibly be do-able. So tier #2 is completely a risk. In my view the most certainly end result is the Cantina with tier #1 as a bonus.
One factor is for certain although, the Cantina will get funded, there’s extraordinarily little doubt about that now. However whether or not or not tiers #2 and #3 are in attain is unknown. There are too many uncertainties due to the shorter marketing campaign period and the upcoming holidays.
I’ll publish an replace on Friday this time, July fifth, it will inform us how the vacations within the US could have an effect on the HasLab. And it must be a bit extra clearer by then which tiers are in attain.
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